Looking Ahead to September
There are several things that we need to keep in mind when we look at the future of the US economy.
First, the yield curve inversion could indicate a future recession. If that happens it would most likely be 20 to 24 months before it takes place.
Second, recessions are not alike. We do expect that when we have a downturn, it will be nothing like that of 2008. Slower economic growth does not indicate a recession.
?Third, most analysts believe that when the Fed meets this month on Wednesday, September 18, they will lower short term interest rates. This action could eliminate the yield curve inversion and the speculation of recession.